The Need for Assessing Technology Deployment in Energy Systems Models to Decarbonise the Residential Sector: A Systematic Literature Review
Barra lateral del artículo
Contenido principal del artículo
Resumen
Scientists across the world are working on understanding the potential impact of buildings’ energy consumption on climate change and vice versa. Buildings comprise between 20% and 40% of overall energy consumption depending on the economic development, cultural, and geographical features of a country or region; heating and cooling can represent up to 80% of the total energy consumed in buildings. Energy systems models (ESMs) have emerged to help the research community to build logical scenarios and simulate the complexity of energy sectors of the global economy. However, current challenges must still be included in ESMs, especially challenges from the end-use energy sectors (i.e. transport, industry, and buildings). This research review assesses two of these current challenges in modelling the energy transition of the residential building sector (RBS): 1. the consideration of the residential sector in energy systems models, and 2. the available technologies to decarbonise the sector.
Descargas
Detalles del artículo
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 4.0.
Aquellos autores/as que tengan publicaciones con esta revista, aceptan los términos siguientes:
a. Los autores/as conservarán sus derechos de copiar y redistribuir el material, bajo los términos estipulados en la Licencia de reconocimiento, no comercial, sin obras derivadas de Creative Commons que permite a terceros compartir la obra bajo las siguientes condiciones:
Reconocimiento — Debe reconocer adecuadamente la autoría, proporcionar un enlace a la licencia e indicar si se han realizado cambios. Puede hacerlo de cualquier manera razonable, pero no de una manera que sugiera que tiene el apoyo del licenciador o lo recibe por el uso que hace.
NoComercial — No puede utilizar el material para una finalidad comercial.
b. Los autores/as podrán adoptar otros acuerdos de licencia no exclusiva de distribución de la versión de la obra publicada (p. ej.: depositarla en un archivo telemático institucional o publicarla en un volumen monográfico) siempre que se indique la publicación inicial en esta revista.
c. Se permite y recomienda a los autores/as difundir su obra a través de Internet (p. ej.: en archivos telemáticos institucionales o en su página web) antes y durante el proceso de envío, lo cual puede producir intercambios interesantes y aumentar las citas de la obra publicada. (Véase El efecto del acceso abierto).
Citas
(1) B. Obama, “The irreversible momentum of clean energy,” Science, vol. 355, pp. 126-129, 2017.
S. A. Elias, “Climate Change and Energy A2 - Dellasala, Dominick A,” in Encyclopedia of the Anthropocene, M. I. Goldstein, Ed., ed Oxford: Elsevier, 2018, pp. 457-466.
P. Rode, C. Keim, G. Robazza, P. Viejo, and J. Schofield, “Cities and energy: urban morphology and residential heat-energy demand,” Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol. 41, pp. 138-162, 2014.
A. Mastrucci, P. Pérez-López, E. Benetto, U. Leopold, and I. Blanc, “Global sensitivity analysis as a support for the generation of simplified building stock energy models,” Energy and Buildings, vol. 149, pp. 368-383, 2017/08/15/ 2017.
J. Ma and J. C. P. Cheng, “Estimation of the building energy use intensity in the urban scale by integrating GIS and big data technology,” Applied Energy, vol. 183, pp. 182-192, 2016/12/01/ 2016.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change vol. 3: Cambridge University Press, 2015.
A. Lind and K. Espegren, “The use of energy system models for analysing the transition to low-carbon cities – The case of Oslo,” Energy Strategy Reviews, vol. 15, pp. 44-56, 2017/03/01/ 2017.
S. Pfenninger, L. Hirth, I. Schlecht, E. Schmid, F. Wiese, T. Brown, et al., “Opening the black box of energy modelling: Strategies and lessons learned,” Energy Strategy Reviews, vol. 19, pp. 63-71, 2018/01/01/ 2018.
F. G. N. Li and S. Pye, “Uncertainty, politics, and technology: Expert perceptions on energy transitions in the United Kingdom,” Energy Research & Social Science, vol. 37, pp. 122-132, 2018/03/01/ 2018.
N. Hughes, N. Strachan, and R. Gross, “The structure of uncertainty in future low carbon pathways,” Energy Policy, vol. 52, pp. 45-54, 2013/01/01/ 2013.
S. Pfenninger, A. Hawkes, and J. Keirstead, “Energy systems modeling for twenty-first century energy challenges,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 33, pp. 74-86, 2014/05/01/ 2014.
P.-H. Li, I. Keppo, and N. Strachan, “Incorporating homeowners’ preferences of heating technologies in the UK TIMES model,” Energy, vol. 148, pp. 716-727, 2018/04/01/ 2018.
D. Timmons, C. Konstantinidis, A. M. Shapiro, and A. Wilson, “Decarbonizing residential building energy: A cost-effective approach,” Energy Policy, vol. 92, pp. 382-392, 2016/05/01/ 2016.
T. H. Y. Føyn, K. Karlsson, O. Balyk, and P. E. Grohnheit, “A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM,” Applied Energy, vol. 88, pp. 526-534, 2011/02/01/ 2011.
A. Herbst, F. Toro, F. Reitze, and E. Jochem, “Introduction to Energy Systems Modelling,” Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, vol. 148, pp. 111-135, April 01 2012.
L. M. H. Hall and A. R. Buckley, “A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation,” Applied Energy, vol. 169, pp. 607-628, 2016/05/01/ 2016.
D. García-Gusano, J. Suárez-Botero, and J. Dufour, “Long-term modelling and assessment of the energy-economy decoupling in Spain,” Energy, vol. 151, pp. 455-466, 2018/05/15/ 2018.
P. Crespo del Granado, R. H. van Nieuwkoop, E. G. Kardakos, and C. Schaffner, “Modelling the energy transition: A nexus of energy system and economic models,” Energy Strategy Reviews, vol. 20, pp. 229-235, 2018/04/01/ 2018.
J. Andersen, U. Aarhus, and Ø. Institut for, Modelling and optimisation of renewable energy systems : a PhD thesis submitted to School of Business and Social Sciences, Aarhus University, in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the PhD degree in economics and business. Aarhus: Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University, 2015.
Y. Geng, H. Zhao, Z. Liu, B. Xue, T. Fujita, and F. Xi, “Exploring driving factors of energy-related CO2 emissions in Chinese provinces: A case of Liaoning,” Energy Policy, vol. 60, pp. 820-826, 2013/09/01/ 2013.
G. P. Peters, C. L. Weber, D. Guan, and K. Hubacek, “China’s Growing CO2 EmissionsA Race between Increasing Consumption and Efficiency Gains,” Environmental Science & Technology, vol. 41, pp. 5939-5944, 2007/09/01 2007.
D. Guan, K. Hubacek, C. L. Weber, G. P. Peters, and D. M. Reiner, “The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030,” Global Environmental Change, vol. 18, pp. 626-634, 2008/10/01/ 2008.
S. Liang and T. Zhang, “What is driving CO2 emissions in a typical manufacturing center of South China? The case of Jiangsu Province,” Energy Policy, vol. 39, pp. 7078-7083, 2011/11/01/ 2011.
A. T. D. Perera, S. Coccolo, J.-L. Scartezzini, and D. Mauree, “Quantifying the impact of urban climate by extending the boundaries of urban energy system modeling,” Applied Energy, vol. 222, pp. 847-860, 2018/07/15/ 2018.
P. Garrone, L. Grilli, and B. Mrkajic, “The energy-efficient transformation of EU business enterprises: Adapting policies to contextual factors,” Energy Policy, vol. 109, pp. 49-58, 2017/10/01/ 2017.
K. Fisher-Vanden, G. H. Jefferson, H. Liu, and Q. Tao, “What is driving China’s decline in energy intensity?,” Resource and Energy Economics, vol. 26, pp. 77-97, 2004/03/01/ 2004.
J. Wei, K. Huang, S. Yang, Y. Li, T. Hu, and Y. Zhang, “Driving forces analysis of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Beijing: an input–output structural decomposition analysis,” Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 163, pp. 58-68, 2017/10/01/ 2017.
L. Frayssinet, L. Merlier, F. Kuznik, J.-L. Hubert, M. Milliez, and J.-J. Roux, “Modeling the heating and cooling energy demand of urban buildings at city scale,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 81, pp. 2318-2327, 2018/01/01/ 2018.
G. Trotta, “Factors affecting energy-saving behaviours and energy efficiency investments in British households,” Energy Policy, vol. 114, pp. 529-539, 2018/03/01/ 2018.
D. Deller, “Energy affordability in the EU: The risks of metric driven policies,” Energy Policy, vol. 119, pp. 168-182, 8// 2018.
M. Assembayeva, J. Egerer, R. Mendelevitch, and N. Zhakiyev, “A spatial electricity market model for the power system: The Kazakhstan case study,” Energy, vol. 149, pp. 762-778, 2018/04/15/ 2018.
J. Bosch, I. Staffell, and A. D. Hawkes, “Temporally-explicit and spatially-resolved global onshore wind energy potentials,” Energy, vol. 131, pp. 207-217, 2017/07/15/ 2017.
J. DeCarolis, H. Daly, P. Dodds, I. Keppo, F. Li, W. McDowall, et al., “Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling,” Applied Energy, vol. 194, pp. 184-198, 5/15/ 2017.
O. Kraan, G. J. Kramer, and I. Nikolic, “Investment in the future electricity system - An agent-based modelling approach,” Energy, vol. 151, pp. 569-580, 2018/05/15/ 2018.
G. Sousa, B. M. Jones, P. A. Mirzaei, and D. Robinson, “A review and critique of UK housing stock energy models, modelling approaches and data sources,” Energy and Buildings, vol. 151, pp. 66-80, 2017/09/15/ 2017.
V. S. K. V. Harish and A. Kumar, “A review on modeling and simulation of building energy systems,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 56, pp. 1272-1292, 2016/04/01/ 2016.
F. Bünning, R. Sangi, and D. Müller, “A Modelica library for the agent-based control of building energy systems,” Applied Energy, vol. 193, pp. 52-59, 2017/05/01/ 2017.
R. E. Best, F. Flager, and M. D. Lepech, “Modeling and optimization of building mix and energy supply technology for urban districts,” Applied Energy, vol. 159, pp. 161-177, 12/1/ 2015.
L. Clarke, J. Eom, E. H. Marten, R. Horowitz, P. Kyle, R. Link, et al., “Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures,” Energy Economics, 2018/01/06/ 2018.
B. Güneralp, Y. Zhou, D. Ürge-Vorsatz, M. Gupta, S. Yu, P. L. Patel, et al., “Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 114, pp. 8945-8950, 2017.
U. Berardi, “A cross-country comparison of the building energy consumptions and their trends,” Resources, Conservation and Recycling, vol. 123, pp. 230-241, 2017/08/01/ 2017.
J. Renard, “Assessment of global potential and competitiveness for District Heating and Cooling technology,” Master, Chemical Engineering, Imperial College, London, 2016.
Y. Meng, “Simulation of Global Households’ Investment in Energy-relevant Technologies in the Residential Sector,” Master, Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, London, 2017.
M. Muratori, H. Kheshgi, B. Mignone, L. Clarke, H. McJeon, and J. Edmonds, “Carbon capture and storage across fuels and sectors in energy system transformation pathways,” International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, vol. 57, pp. 34-41, 2017/02/01/ 2017.
D. Daniels. (2017, 09 May). Overview of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Available: https://cepl.gatech.edu/sites/default/files/attachments/NEMS%20Overview_8-31-17FINAL_0.pdf
J. T. Wilkerson, D. Cullenward, D. Davidian, and J. P. Weyant, “End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors,” Energy Economics, vol. 40, pp. 773-784, 2013/11/01/ 2013.
D. Cullenward, J. T. Wilkerson, M. Wara, and J. P. Weyant, “Dynamically estimating the distributional impacts of U.S. climate policy with NEMS: A case study of the Climate Protection Act of 2013,” Energy Economics, vol. 55, pp. 303-318, 2016/03/01/ 2016.
S. Pfenninger, J. DeCarolis, L. Hirth, S. Quoilin, and I. Staffell, “The importance of open data and software: Is energy research lagging behind?,” Energy Policy, vol. 101, pp. 211-215, 2017/02/01/ 2017.
R. Loulou and M. Labriet, “ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure,” Computational Management Science, vol. 5, pp. 7-40, February 01 2008.
E. Assoumou, F. Ghersi, J. C. Hourcade, L. Jun, N. Maïzi, and S. Selosse, “Reconciling top-down and bottom-up energy/economy models: a case of TIAM-FR and IMACLIM-R,” Chaire Modélisation prospective au service du développement durable, 2017.
M. Labriet, A. Kanudia, and R. Loulou, “Climate mitigation under an uncertain technology future: A TIAM-World analysis,” Energy Economics, vol. 34, pp. S366-S377, 2012/12/01/ 2012.
F. Gracceva and P. Zeniewski, “Exploring the uncertainty around potential shale gas development – A global energy system analysis based on TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model),” Energy, vol. 57, pp. 443-457, 2013/08/01/ 2013.
M. van den Broek, E. Brederode, A. Ramírez, L. Kramers, M. van der Kuip, T. Wildenborg, et al., “An integrated GIS-MARKAL toolbox for designing a CO2 infrastructure network in the Netherlands,” Energy Procedia, vol. 1, pp. 4071-4078, 2009/02/01/ 2009.
M. van den Broek, A. Ramírez, H. Groenenberg, F. Neele, P. Viebahn, W. Turkenburg, et al., “Feasibility of storing CO2 in the Utsira formation as part of a long term Dutch CCS strategy: An evaluation based on a GIS/MARKAL toolbox,” International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, vol. 4, pp. 351-366, 2010/03/01/ 2010.
F. Gardumi, A. Shivakumar, R. Morrison, C. Taliotis, O. Broad, A. Beltramo, et al., “From the development of an open-source energy modelling tool to its application and the creation of communities of practice: The example of OSeMOSYS,” Energy Strategy Reviews, vol. 20, pp. 209-228, 2018/04/01/ 2018.
G. N. Pinto de Moura, L. F. Loureiro Legey, G. P. Balderrama, and M. Howells, “South America power integration, Bolivian electricity export potential and bargaining power: An OSeMOSYS SAMBA approach,” Energy Strategy Reviews, vol. 17, pp. 27-36, 2017/09/01/ 2017.
D. Huppmann, M. Gidden, O. Fricko, P. Kolp, C. Orthofer, M. Pimmer, et al., “The MESSAGEix Integrated Assessment Model and the ix modeling platform (ixmp),” Environmental Modelling & Software, 2018.
IIASA. (2018, May 17). The MESSAGEix framework. Available: http://messageix.iiasa.ac.at/index.html#
D. Ürge-Vorsatz, L. F. Cabeza, S. Serrano, C. Barreneche, and K. Petrichenko, “Heating and cooling energy trends and drivers in buildings,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 41, pp. 85-98, 2015/01/01/ 2015.
P. Model, “Model 2013-2014. Detailed model description. E3MLab/ICCS at National Technical University of Athens, NTUA, Zografou Campus Athens, Greece, 155p,” ed, 2017.
P. Fragkos, K. Fragkiadakis, L. Paroussos, R. Pierfederici, S. S. Vishwanathan, A. C. Köberle, et al., “Coupling national and global models to explore policy impacts of NDCs,” Energy Policy, vol. 118, pp. 462-473, 2018/07/01/ 2018.
C. Heaps, “Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system.[Software version 2018.1.8] Stockholm Environment Institute. Somerville, MA, USA,” ed, 2018.
J. Li, “Towards a low-carbon future in China’s building sector—A review of energy and climate models forecast,” Energy Policy, vol. 36, pp. 1736-1747, 2008/05/01/ 2008.
D. Connolly, H. Lund, B. V. Mathiesen, and M. Leahy, “A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems,” Applied Energy, vol. 87, pp. 1059-1082, 2010/04/01/ 2010.
P. Laha and B. Chakraborty, “Energy model – A tool for preventing energy dysfunction,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 73, pp. 95-114, 2017/06/01/ 2017.
A. Cherp, V. Vinichenko, J. Jewell, E. Brutschin, and B. Sovacool, “Integrating techno-economic, socio-technical and political perspectives on national energy transitions: A meta-theoretical framework,” Energy Research & Social Science, vol. 37, pp. 175-190, 2018/03/01/ 2018.
R. Kowsari and H. Zerriffi, “Three dimensional energy profile:: A conceptual framework for assessing household energy use,” Energy Policy, vol. 39, pp. 7505-7517, 2011/12/01/ 2011.
O. Damette, P. Delacote, and G. D. Lo, “Households energy consumption and transition toward cleaner energy sources,” Energy Policy, vol. 113, pp. 751-764, 2018/02/01/ 2018.
S. Werner, “District heating and cooling in Sweden,” Energy, vol. 126, pp. 419-429, 2017/05/01/ 2017.
B. Rismanchi, “District energy network (DEN), current global status and future development,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 75, pp. 571-579, 2017/08/01/ 2017.
D. F. Dominkovi?, K. A. Bin Abdul Rashid, A. Romagnoli, A. S. Pedersen, K. C. Leong, G. Kraja?i?, et al., “Potential of district cooling in hot and humid climates,” Applied Energy, vol. 208, pp. 49-61, 2017/12/15/ 2017.
S. Werner, “International review of district heating and cooling,” Energy, vol. 137, pp. 617-631, 2017/10/15/ 2017.
K. Lygnerud and S. Werner, “Risk assessment of industrial excess heat recovery in district heating systems,” Energy, vol. 151, pp. 430-441, 2018/05/15/ 2018.
A. Lake, B. Rezaie, and S. Beyerlein, “Review of district heating and cooling systems for a sustainable future,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 67, pp. 417-425, 2017/01/01/ 2017.
H. Averfalk and S. Werner, “Novel low temperature heat distribution technology,” Energy, vol. 145, pp. 526-539, 2018/02/15/ 2018.
H. Lund, S. Werner, R. Wiltshire, S. Svendsen, J. E. Thorsen, F. Hvelplund, et al., “4th Generation District Heating (4GDH): Integrating smart thermal grids into future sustainable energy systems,” Energy, vol. 68, pp. 1-11, 2014/04/15/ 2014.
M. A. Sayegh, J. Danielewicz, T. Nannou, M. Miniewicz, P. Jadwiszczak, K. Piekarska, et al., “Trends of European research and development in district heating technologies,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 68, pp. 1183-1192, 2017/02/01/ 2017.
J. Keirstead and N. Shah, Urban energy systems: An integrated approach: Routledge, 2013.
I. Dincer and C. Zamfirescu, Sustainable energy systems and applications: Springer Science & Business Media, 2011.
C. Weber and D. Favrat, “Conventional and advanced CO2 based district energy systems,” Energy, vol. 35, pp. 5070-5081, 2010/12/01/ 2010.
C. Del Pero, N. Aste, H. Paksoy, F. Haghighat, S. Grillo, and F. Leonforte, “Energy storage key performance indicators for building application,” Sustainable Cities and Society, vol. 40, pp. 54-65, 2018/07/01/ 2018.
J. von Geibler, K. Bienge, D. Schüwer, O. Berthold, A. Dauensteiner, V. Grinewitschus, et al., “Identifying business opportunities for green innovations: A quantitative foundation for accelerated micro-fuel cell diffusion in residential buildings,” Energy Reports, vol. 4, pp. 226-242, 2018/11/01/ 2018.
K. E. Enongene, P. Murray, J. Holland, and F. H. Abanda, “Energy savings and economic benefits of transition towards efficient lighting in residential buildings in Cameroon,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 78, pp. 731-742, 2017/10/01/ 2017.
A. Hidalgo, L. Villacrés, R. Hechavarría, and D. Moya, “Proposed integration of a photovoltaic solar energy system and energy efficient technologies in the lighting system of the UTA-Ecuador,” Energy Procedia, vol. 134, pp. 296-305, 2017/10/01/ 2017.
I. Ahemen, A. N. Amah, and P. O. Agada, “A survey of power supply and lighting patterns in North Central Nigeria—The energy saving potentials through efficient lighting systems,” Energy and Buildings, vol. 133, pp. 770-776, 2016/12/01/ 2016.
D. Moya, R. Torres, and S. Stegen, “Analysis of the Ecuadorian energy audit practices: A review of energy efficiency promotion,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 62, pp. 289-296, 2016/09/01/ 2016.
D. Kolokotsa, “The role of smart grids in the building sector,” Energy and Buildings, vol. 116, pp. 703-708, 2016/03/15/ 2016.
M. M. Wagh and V. V. Kulkarni, “Modeling and Optimization of Integration of Renewable Energy Resources (RER) for Minimum Energy Cost, Minimum CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development, in Recent Years: A Review,” Materials Today: Proceedings, vol. 5, pp. 11-21, 2018/01/01/ 2018.
R. Loulou, G. Goldstein, and K. Noble, “Documentation for the MARKAL Family of Models,” Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme, pp. 65-73, 2004.
R. Loulou and M. Labriet, “ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure,” Computational Management Science, vol. 5, pp. 7-40, 2008.
H. Wang, W. Chen, and J. Shi, “Low carbon transition of global building sector under 2- and 1.5-degree targets,” Applied Energy, vol. 222, pp. 148-157, 2018/07/15/ 2018.
Y. Zhou, J. Eom, and L. Clarke, “The effect of global climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the US and China,” Climatic Change, vol. 119, pp. 979-992, 2013.